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Demand for nurses fades slightly: Downturn cuts into job outlook, training; slowing called temporary
(Arizona Daily Star, The (Tucson) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Mar. 16--Though it has long been considered a secure career with an oversupply of jobs, the nursing profession is now feeling the economy's pinch.
A regular career fair that takes place each semester at the University of Arizona's College of Nursing was canceled this spring due to a lack of interest from hospitals, said Vickie Radoye, who is the college's assistant dean for student affairs.
And the college will be admitting 48 fewer students this year because of cuts to a 14-month accelerated partnership program with local hospitals, where the hospital subsidizes the tuition-free program in exchange for a three-year work commitment from students once they graduate.
Tucson Medical Center this year will fund only half the number of students it has in the past -- eight now, rather than 16. The Carondelet Health Network is cutting all 40 student spots it previously funded. University Medical Center and Northwest Medical Center are continuing their support at existing levels.
"I think this is a temporary pause due to the economic climate. What I'm hearing is that nurses who are already working are not retiring, and some of those who were part time are now going full time," Radoye said. "I'm sure it will turn around. The projection of a critical nursing shortage is sound; it's not going to change."
Indeed, applications to health-care programs are up in part because the industry is viewed as one of the few sanctuaries from fluctuations in the economy. Graduates may have to work a little harder to find jobs in nursing and other health-related fields, but it's still a pretty safe bet. The only problem is that it is becoming extremely competitive to get into programs like nursing.
Applications to the UA's College of Nursing are already nearly double what they were for all of 2008, and there's still one more deadline this year, Radoye said.
The college has received 488 applications for 102 spots in its bachelor's of science in nursing program.
Radoye estimates the odds of an applicant getting accepted will go from one in three in 2008 to one in five this year. In addition to a bigger applicant pool, there are fewer spots to offer students because of the hospital program cuts, she noted.
TMC and Carondelet officials said it's possible they will reinstate more student spots in the future, and that their decisions to cut back were based on a lack of immediate need.
"The nursing shortage hasn't hit yet. The downturn is impacting everyone in health care, but at the same time we don't want to be shortsighted," said Judy Tatman, senior vice president and chief nursing officer for the Carondelet Health Network.
"We're being deliberate about our programs and existing needs."
The executive director of the Arizona Nurses Association said what's happening in Tucson isn't unusual.
"This is happening all over the state. I'm hoping it is a blip," Joyce Benjamin said.
"A lot has to do with the economy. Nurses are staying in their jobs, not wanting to move around. And then hospitals are doing due diligence with the economy, putting things on hold, and hospital admissions and ER visits are down. People are putting a hold on elective surgeries."
Benjamin says there will always be new jobs for nurses, but the competition for the best ones is much tougher this year.
"One hospital had 400 applications for 30 spots. A year ago new grads could pretty much call the shots. They'll have to work a little harder now," she said. "I'm hoping a year from now we'll see something a little different."
The situation is likely to change at some point in the near future. About one-third of the state's nurses are over the age of 55, which is certain to mean more job openings within the next 10 to 15 years.
But students in the UA's nursing program this year aren't too worried about jobs, said Sarah Zakula, a 22-year-old senior who graduates in May.
"With the economy, it seems like there are fewer jobs, but I think for us it means we have to look a little harder to find exactly what we want," she said. "I don't think any of us graduating will not find a job."
Zakula wants to work at a hospital in the Phoenix area as a registered nurse in cardiology and is optimistic that she'll find a position.
A pre-nursing club at the UA called Professional Achievements in Nursing (PAIN) has more than 200 members whose prime concern is not getting a job, but rather getting into the competitive nursing program, group treasurer David Eisenbise said.
Eisenbise, a 20-year-old sophomore, said there may be fewer nursing jobs right now, but he doesn't think that will be true in the long term.
"There's still demand, but it's not as extraordinarily high as it has been," he said. "Nursing is still up there in terms of future job growth. Also, I think nursing is a program with a lot of options. It's a starting point that will allow you to go into a lot of different directions -- public health policy, government, law medical ethics. ..."
Benjamin said a new nursing graduate can expect to earn a starting salary of between $23 and $25 per hour -- about $50,000 per year, and that the average salary for nurses of all experience levels is about $67,000, and with extra shift work or by becoming a nurse practitioner, there's an opportunity for much higher salaries.
When he made up his mind to go into nursing, Eisenbise said, the availability of jobs and the pay definitely played a role in his decision.
"It is an important factor, though not the main factor. If one were to decide on nursing or education versus, say, classics or the arts, those last two things may seem like more fun, but you have to worry about paying the bills."
However, Eisenbise said his main decision in choosing the career was providing patient care because he's always had an interest in science and in the health-care system.
Eisenbise, who expects to graduate with a bachelor's in nursing in 2011, said he made up his mind to go into nursing while working as a hospital volunteer and witnessing the differences between what various medical professionals do.
Prospects in other health-care professions
Pharmacy
The one local exception to the increase in applications for health-care programs of study is at the UA's College of Pharmacy.
Applications for its four-year doctor of pharmacy -- or PharmD -- program were down this year, from 288 applications to start in 2008 to 196 applications completed for admission this year, college officials said. The college typically offers 100 spots in each class.
College communications director Ginny Geib said there are likely a combination of reasons for the decline: One may be that requirements to get into the program are stricter -- students now need a B instead of a C in anatomy and physiology to qualify.
Another issue that may have discouraged some applicants was the re-norming of the national PCAT, the Pharmacy College Admission Test, which is a requirement for admission. Overall scores went down across the country, but some students didn't understand that and may have thought they weren't strong enough to apply, Geib said.
Also, Geib said, officials believe the economy could have dissuaded some students from a program that costs $14,498 per year in tuition alone. That price tag is expected to go up for this year's class, and university officials are still negotiating by how much.
Since students must have 71 credit hours in order to apply for the four-year program, many may want to wait a year or two before footing more tuition bills, she said.
Still, while applications to the College of Pharmacy are down, interest in the program appears to be high. A pre-pharmacy club for undergraduates at the UA has increased from 160 students four years ago to its current membership total of 311.
"Our membership went way up from last year. Health professions are very popular," said Marty Baker , coordinator of recruitment and admission for the college.
And though many local pharmacies are cutting back on hours, meaning fewer job opportunities for pharmacists here, graduates of the UA's College of Pharmacy can still count on finding well-paying jobs, clinical assistant professor Kevin Boesen said.
Unless they do a residency, most pharmacy graduates will earn well over $100,000 per year in their first year out of school, he said.
"One difference is that there are not as many opportunities in the Tucson market as there have been in the past," Boesen said. "But there are a lot of opportunities in the Phoenix market. Nationally, I definitely think we are feeling the current economy, but it's just short-term. The only people it will really affect are students who want to stay in Tucson.
"I think everyone will get a job. They just might have to change their plans in terms of where they want to live," he said. "The Medicare population is supposed to double between now and 2020, so I still think it's a good profession for people to go into."
Physician Assistant
An area of study growing in popularity is for students to become a physician assistant -- someone who practices medicine under the supervision of a physician.
The American Academy of Physician Assistants reports that in 2007, new physician assistant graduates working 32 hours or more had a median income of $74,470. In Arizona, the median income for physician assistants of all experience levels is $90,758, the same group reports.
There's no local physician-assistant program. But Tucson students often go to one of two schools in the Phoenix area that offer degree programs for prospective physician assistants -- Midwestern University in Glendale and AT Still University in Mesa, which say they have seen a steady increase in applicants over the last five years.
At AT Still, there were 1,867 applications for just 68 spots in its 26-month program. Midwestern was also competitive -- slightly more than 900 people competing for 86 spots for its 27-month program.
"We do believe more people are looking at this field in a recession. Health care does take a hit, but not nearly as bad as some industries," said Kevin Lohenry, program director of Midwestern's Glendale physician assistant program. He is also an associate professor.
"When the economy is struggling, a lot of people do go back to college, and physician assistants are uniquely positioned to be one of the answers to the health-care crisis -- they can help with the projected shortage of health-care providers."
The job outlook for physician assistant graduates still appears good, Lohenry said. He said that anecdotally, the class of 2008 has done well in its job search and that 93 percent of the class of 2007 had jobs within 12 weeks of graduation.
"We should be fine. The real proof in the pudding will be when the next class graduates, in August 2009, right in the middle of a downturn," he said. "I'll be interested to see how they do."
In the long run, prospects for physician assistants look solid -- the U.S. Department of Labor and Money Magazine have both predicted big growth for the profession.
Public Health
Demand for education in the public health field is so high that officials at the Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health are developing a bachelor's degree program in public health they hope to begin offering this year.
And applications to a centralized service for students seeking master's degrees in public health are expected to increase by about 20 percent this year, said Chris Tisch, assistant dean of student and alumni affairs for the college. About one in three applicants is admitted to the local program's master's class of about 100, she said.
An interest in global health is fueling the surge, as well as a need for trained public health workers in both non-government and government organizations, Tisch said. The college's database includes alumni working in at least 16 countries.
The college this past year established a public health certificate program where applicants with a bachelor's degree may take five core courses in public health in as little as a year.
There are no salary figures for graduates of the masters in public health program -- the college's most popular -- because the field is so broad.
"It includes everything from biostatistics and epidemiology to occupational health and behavioral health policy or health policy and management," Tisch said. "Our graduates are employed in a huge variety of positions. As varied as the disciplines are in public health, so are the salaries."
The college also has several dual degree tracks, including an MD-MPH, a JD-MPH and an MPH-MS Mexican American studies and an MPH-Latin American studies dual degree.
"We haven't had a job fair in the college. Public health in general tends to be a networked community, and as far as we know we haven't seen a decline in our graduates being hired. That could happen," Tisch said. "A positive is that the students are tending to start their job search earlier and get their resume in order and prepared before May 15.
"There is a graying of the public-health work force that should result in a lot of opportunities for our graduates. By and large public-health folks are adaptable and open-minded in terms of possibilities."
Contact reporter Stephanie Innes at 573-4134 or at sinnes@azstarnet.com.
To see more of The Arizona Daily Star, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.azstarnet.com.
Copyright (c) 2009, The Arizona Daily Star, Tucson
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