Though they are not the only options, researchers at ABI Research (News - Alert) say they are confident that the battle for new mobile broadband networks will be a contest between WiMAX and LTE (News - Alert). The way the battle now is shaping up, WiMAX has the speed to market advantage. But LTE is embraced by most of the global mobile carrier industry. WiMAX will get to market first, though.

Still, WiMAX has a closing window of opportunity, ABI researchers say. “The biggest opportunity for mobile WiMAX is the chance to develop a wider device ecosystem and worldwide subscriber base before LTE starts to do the same,” says ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis.

Ultimately, though, “LTE will become the dominant 4G technology,” says Solis. ABI Research forecasts that LTE subscriber numbers will surpass mobile WiMAX subscribers after 2015.

In principle, LTE should offer more bandwidth than WiMAX. But that might not be the issue. WiMAX will get to market sooner, and therefore has a chance to grab a foothold. And as executives from AT&T recently pointed out, access bandwidth is not the only, or perhaps even most important, factor in determining end user quality of experience. The whole IP delivery system has to be optimized.

“It isn't just speed at the end access points,” says John Stankey, AT&T group president. “The speed a customer actually experiences is determined by the slowest part of the network.”

So it is likely commercial success will not, in fact, be based on the technical merits WiMAX and LTE possess. What matters is how successful WiMAX providers are at creating a business based on broadband access for all sorts of devices including, but not limited to, PCs and smart phones.

Since wireless carriers ultimately will leverage their huge installed base of users, already WiMAX providers have to move quickly to establish a niche.

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Gary Kim (News - Alert) is a contributing editor for TMCnet. To read more of his articles, please visit his columnist page.

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