Business Insights of Rockville, Maryland, has just released a white paper that examines the gray areas of today’s smart grid market – looking at segments in which potential investors should exercise caution; “decoding” industry forecasts; and examining security issues and political concerns.

According to the authors of the report, Smart Home, Smart Grid, Smart City, “The smart grid field is moving fast. What appears to be happening is that plans are firming up globally and forecasts are becoming more optimistic; however the track record for new technology deployments is patchy. (For example, in the area of electric vehicles, many planned launches have not happened, not happened on time, or fallen short of expectations.)”

The report offers insights that will enable readers to:

• Understand the scale of forecasts for smart grid and associated technology,
• Identify where much of the real spending has been done to date,
• Focus on the extent to which some of this spending is not happening – and, in fact,  at present, is mostly planned and forecast,
• Identify some of the key traps in smart grid investment, and
• Achieve insights into alternative strategies.

From 2010 through 2011, smart grid technology has moved from the realm of theory to reality, say the researchers. But this “progress” may be driven by two optimistic schools of thought that are not totally reality-based:  a “standard narrative,” setting out how the future is likely to evolve; and substantial forecasts for categories of technology that do not yet even exist in any major fashion.

Therefore, businesses are encountering problems as they strive to make the right smart grid-related choices: Benefits may be delivered by alternative means (different technologies): they may not be perceived as benefits (consumer resistance); or the skill set needed to deliver benefits may be very dissimilar to existing skill sets (new entrants).

“Businesses need to be future-proofed,” the researchers believe, stating, “Managers need to insure themselves against the possibility that the future scenario could diverge from current expectations.”

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