It’s official. This year’s leading-edge innovation has morphed into next year’s lifestyle enhancement. A new study has identified 25 emerging market countries that are positioned for the next wave of smart grid activity over the coming decade—11 of them, within the next one-to-three years. 

The 11 most likely to proceed are Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Arab Emirates.

These countries, alone, will represent a smart metering market of at least $27 billion very shortly—and of as much as $49 billion by 2020, with an estimated 406 million meters installed by that time. Already, 28 percent of the emerging nations covered in the study have issued a regulatory mandate or target for smart meters. 

The new study, released by the Washington, D.C.-based Northeast Group, LLC is entitled “Emerging Markets Smart Grid: 25-Country Overview.” It analyzes the smart grid potential of 25 countries from Central/Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa, South Africa, and Southeast Asia. The scope of the study did not include the China or India markets

“The majority of smart grid activity to-date has taken place in [major] markets in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. These developed markets represent more than 95 percent of the current installed base of smart meters worldwide. However, there are a number of very attractive emerging market countries that have not received as much coverage and have very strong potential for smart metering and other smart grid projects. We view these 25 countries as representing the next wave of activity worldwide,” according to Northeast Group, LLC.

In a statement, the group noted, “Smart grid offers emerging markets a number of potential benefits. Countries can improve overall electric utility reliability, reduce electricity theft rates, manage surging demand, and incorporate new sources of renewable energy. Modernizing the electricity infrastructure will be increasingly important, as these economies grow quickly over the next several years. The 25 countries in the study are forecast to see average annual GDP growth of 4.3 percent over the next five years, compared with 1.7 percent in the developed world.”

Smart metering – or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) – deployments will make up the majority of initial smart grid activity, creating significant meter hardware, communications, IT, and professional services markets across the 25 countries. Following AMI, there is strong potential for distribution automation, substation automation, and home energy management technologies, including distributed solar generation and electric vehicle supply equipment.

Northeast Group, LLC assessed the smart meter potential of each country based on the potential benefits, the regulatory framework in place and the total market size. The report includes details on each of the 25 countries, including their industry structure, regulatory framework, business case indicators, and existing smart grid activity.